16-11-2015 / redazione watergas.it
PRINCIPALI EVIDENZE DELLA RICERCA DI STANDARD&POOR’S RELATIVA ALL’EVENTO COP21 SUL CLIMATE CHANGE, CHE SI TERRA' A PARIGI A PARTIRE DAL PROSSIMO 30 NOVEMBRE
Sommario degli argomenti trattati - Global Warming By Numbers - The Drive Toward Decarbonization: The Implications - Financing The Transition - No Going Back - Appendix: The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
Principali evidenze della ricerca
- Lo scopo di COP21 è raggiungere un accordo globale per combattere efficacemente il climate change e favorire la transizione verso un economia globale resiliente e “low-carbon”
- Un accordo di successo dovrebbe limitare l’emissione di gas serra, limitando l’aumento della temperatura media globale a massimo 2 gradi celsius
- Le normative nazionali e internazionali che nasceranno da questo accordo avranno grandi ripercussioni sui settori ad alto utilizzo di carbone, in particolare per quanto riguarda la produzione di energia e l’industria estrattiva
- Finanziare questa transizione richiederà il ricorso agli investimenti privati in tecnologie a basse emissioni, come le rinnovabili e l’efficienza energetica, così come un meccanismo di carbon-pricing per fornire gli incentivi necessari
Financing To Be Key Issue Underlying Climate Change Agreement In Paris, Report Says
- The aim of COP21 is to reach a global agreement that will combat climate change effectively and boost the transition toward a resilient and low-carbon global economy.
- A successful agreement would limit greenhouse gas emissions, forestalling a rise in the average global temperature by no more than 2 degrees Celsius.
- National and international regulations arising from such an agreement would have major repercussions for carbon-intensive sectors, in particular power generation and coal mining.
- Financing the transition will need to rely on private investment aimed at low-carbon technologies such as renewables and energy efficiency, as well as carbon-pricing mechanisms to provide the necessary incentives.
With the Group of Seven (G-7) nations pledging earlier this year to decarbonize their economies by 2100, expectations are high that the UN Climate Change Conference starting at the end of this month in Paris will produce a global treaty, said Standard & Poor's in a report published today, "Climate Change: Building A Framework For The Future."
Yet our memories are littered with failed climate change negotiations of the past, and many remain skeptical whether the forthcoming fortnight of talks in the French capital will be any different. So what would constitute a success and what would failure look like? And what should the world of business and finance expect from an agreement in Paris, at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change?
Some have argued that success at COP21 won't be and shouldn't be a legally binding treaty to curb global emissions. Instead, they argue, success would be a flexible, high-level political framework that allows for bottom-up national pledges (the so-called intended nationally determined contributions or INDCs). Countries would then translate their pledges into national policies to decarbonize their global economies by 2100.
"Many countries have made commitments to date, creating optimism about the chances for an agreement. However, as many commentators have noted, the sum of these commitments doesn't bring down carbon emissions enough to limit the average global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius, relative to pre-industrial levels," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Michael Wilkins.
Nonetheless, an agreement in Paris this December will mark a critical turning point in the effort to tackle climate change, where most countries in the world will accept the need to take action regardless of whether or not some other group or block of countries acts first. The expectation is that they will seal this consensus with a global political agreement.
"If governments are to send strong signals in support of long-term strategies and priorities to support movement toward low carbon and resilience, then financing will be a key issue that must be unblocked for there to be agreement in Paris," said Mr. Wilkins.
Commitments within an internationally agreed framework could provide the common norms that will allow actions by sovereign states to link up and unlock the finance necessary to decarbonize the world's economy.
This could be through the promotion of linkages between established carbon pricing mechanisms and markets. Carbon market linkages allow for efficiencies in emission reduction activities to be identified beyond borders, and can attract investment where emissions reductions occur at the lowest cost. This could accelerate clean energy investment at the scale needed to meet the world's ambitious decarbonization goals.
"Paris may well usher in the necessary policy and regulatory infrastructure for action. While COP21 may not achieve a 2 degree outcome, the necessary impetus to get there is gaining momentum. That should be considered a success, of sorts," Mr. Wilkins said.
RELATED CRITERIA AND RESEARCH
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- For The U.S. Economy, Climate Change Is A Case Of Pay Now--Or Pay More Later, Sept. 18, 2014
- Climate Change Could Sting Reinsurers That Underestimate Its Impact, Sept. 3, 2014
- Dealing With Disaster: How Companies Are Starting To Assess Their Climate Event Risks, May 21, 2014
- Climate Policy And The Rise Of Carbon Markets, May 19, 2014
- Environmental Regulation Starts To Squeeze Utilities' Credit Quality, Nov. 14, 2012
- Credit FAQ: What The Durban Climate Change Talks Could Mean For Clean Energy Investment And Carbon-Intensive Industries, Dec. 21, 2011
- Q&A: Did The Cancun Summit Bring Global Action On Climate Change A Step Closer? Dec. 20, 2010
- Q&A: Successes And Shortcomings From Copenhagen's Climate-Change Conference, Jan. 12, 2010
We have determined, based solely on the developments described herein, that no rating actions are currently warranted. Only a rating committee may determine a rating action and, as these developments were not viewed as material to the ratings, neither they nor this report were reviewed by a rating committee.
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